We should all be used to volatility in the price of Bitcoin by now. Even by its own sometimes-baffling standards, it’s been a turbulent year for those who have large investments in the currency, with prices rising, crashing down, and then rising again with seemingly no explanation or justification. While it was worrying at first to see the value of your portfolio plummet through the floor, many of us have now learned to sit back and wait for it to pick itself back up again. It’s all part of the joy of being a Bitcoin investor.
While we’ve been watching the price of the currency rise and fall, we’ve been making notes about what does affect Bitcoin’s value, and what doesn’t. We still don’t have an extensive list, and at times we still feel like we’re playing online slots. Nobody knows what’s going to happen next after you put money into an online slots game, and anyone who claims to be able to predict the outcome is a liar. There have been days when we’d have got a better return on investment by actually visiting an slot games website that accepts Bitcoin and entrusting it with our money, but there are patterns beginning to emerge – and the more we see the patterns, the more we can predict the future.
We can now officially add something else to the list of things that will make Bitcoin prices surge – global health scares. If anybody reading this had predicted that the ongoing coronavirus panic would result in Bitcoin rising above the ten thousand dollar mark and climbing higher, we salute you. On reflection, this should have been predictable. The coronavirus is having a huge impact on global monetary markets because of its impact on import, export, tourism, and travel. Investors don’t like that kind of chaos. They need somewhere to put their money where it won’t be affected by the pandemic, and cryptocurrency is the obvious choice. As Bitcoin is inevitably where all inexperienced crypto traders go when they’re looking for sanctuary, it’s Bitcoin that’s received the lions share of the cash. Lest we need to remind you, this time a little over a year ago, Bitcoin was trading at barely over three thousand dollars. It’s been a roller coaster ride, but we appear to be close to the top of it once more.
The issue with being close to the top of a roller coaster is that you know you’re eventually going to plummet down the other side of it again. When you’re on a white-knuckle ride at a theme park, that’s a thrilling experience. When your knuckles are white while you’re watching the value of your Bitcoin fall away, it may still make your stomach turn somersaults, but not in a positive way. Can we predict when the next downturn is likely to happen, though? In other words, does anybody know when the current coronavirus scare is likely to end?
Before we go on, we should point out that we want to see the situation end as quickly as possible. As nice as it is to see the value of Bitcoin increasing, nobody with a heart or a conscience is happy with the idea of getting richer because people are getting sick. We leave that moral quandary to the pharmaceutical industry. It would, however, be useful for planning if we could identify when Bitcoin is likely to hit its peak price during this rise, and when the market is likely to deflate because the economic impact of the coronavirus is beginning to ease off. The answer – which might not please you if you haven’t yet had the chance to take advantage of the increase in Bitcoin’s value – is quite soon. The number of cases being diagnosed every day in China is steadily decreasing. There will sadly still be more deaths because of the number of people already infected with the disease, but the number of new patients is beginning to fall. That means from an economic point of view, things will probably soon return to normal.
What ‘normal’ means in the world of conventional finance and what ‘normal’ means in the world of Bitcoin, though, is very different. The price won’t suddenly crash back through the floor just because the coronavirus crisis is over. That’s because we have May’s halving activity coming up, and that will almost certainly counter any negative impact that comes as a result of people withdrawing from Bitcoin because the markets have settled. Last time there was a halving, the price of Bitcoin doubled. We don’t expect to see the same thing happen again – much as trapping lightning in a bottle would be nice – but we anticipate that if anything, the value of Bitcoin at the end of May will be even higher than it is now. It may not hit $20,000 again, but if it went above $15,000, our eyebrows wouldn’t shoot off our faces.
That leaves investors with a difficult question. Is the best time to capitalize on the inflated price of Bitcoin right now before the price begins to fall away again? If you bought Bitcoin at the $4K to $5K mark during the past twelve months, and the value of your currency has doubled since then, the temptation to sell is presumably very strong. If the value really did rise to $15,000 in a few short months, though, would you regret not holding your nerve a little bit longer and taking advantage of the second increase? Or would you come away looking smart in the long run because the post-coronavirus drop in the price of Bitcoin was barely offset by the benefits of halving?
We wish we could give you the answer, but if we could be that sure about how Bitcoin was going to perform, we would be a lot richer than we are – and so would a lot of other people. The simple answer is that we don’t know. Either eventuality is possible, and so making a move in either direction is a gamble. Perhaps it’s better to keep hold of what you have for now and just enjoy the fact that the currency has come a very long way in the past year. The good times are here again. Let’s hope they stick around this time.
Disclaimer: This is a paid post and should be considered as news/advice.