Chinese New Year and Bitcoin Price
Matrixport, a crypto asset (virtual currency) service company, released a market analysis report on the 20th. Buying bitcoin (BTC) at the end of the first day of Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) and selling it 15 days later will yield an average return of +9%.
Relation: Bitcoin hits year-to-date high NY Dow/cryptocurrency-related stocks overall high | 21
Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, said the last eight years (2015-2022) have all yielded positive returns, continuing:
This is a 100% hit rate (8 wins, 0 losses). If historical history is any guide, buying bitcoin on January 22, 2023 (the first day of the Chinese New Year) and selling it 10 trading days later on February 1, 2023 will be 9% higher.
Bitcoin’s cumulative average return tends to rise by about 12% after buying on the first day of the Chinese New Year, with the price peaking around the 15th to 19th day. Therefore, the 15th to 19th days are considered to be an appropriate time to sell.
If the trends presented by Matrixport hold true this year, the price of Bitcoin will exceed $25,000 by February 1st.
“China has had a big impact on bitcoin over the years. When people get together, they talk about bitcoin,” Thielen said, explaining why the Lunar New Year will boost bitcoin prices.
In China, in May 2021, the government issued a strict virtual currency ban. In September of the same year, the People’s Bank of China tightened regulations on cryptocurrency mining, pointing out that all services that can exchange cryptocurrencies could be subject to criminal penalties.
Until then, China had the largest share of bitcoin mining hash rate in the world, but the share decreased sharply after the crackdown. However, a survey by the University of Cambridge in the UK revealed that the market share had recovered since September 2009, and as of January 2010, it was back in second place in the world.
Relation: Bitcoin’s global mining share, China returns to second place = University of Cambridge, UK
What is hash rate
Mining mining speed. In Japanese, it is expressed as “mining speed”. The unit is “hash/s”. “s” stands for “second” and represents “how many calculations can be done per second”. It is used as an index to show the processing power of mining equipment and how fast cryptocurrency mining is done.
Opinions calling attention to the rising trend
Bitcoin’s price is down nearly 67% from its peak in November 2021, but has been strong this year, rising 38% so far. However, there are also opinions urging caution against such an upward trend.
I’ve been checking charts all this time, avoiding noise from Twitter. The way the upward movement is happening, the way htf resistances are being tested… it clearly looks manipulated, no real demand.
Once again, the biggest bull trap I’ve ever seen.
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) January 21, 2023
For example, cryptocurrency analyst and influencer il Capo Of Crypto commented, “From the chart analysis, it looks like the rally and resistance are clearly manipulated.” (Bullish trap).”
Also, British cryptocurrency investment company CoinShares pointed out on the 23rd that $37 million (about 4.8 billion yen) of funds flowed into cryptocurrency investment products last week, with the majority (68%) being purchases of short investment products. bottom.