In early August, bitcoin (BTC), which was on an upward trend at the same time as the risk-off market, continued to fall back and continue to fall.
There are events in September, such as the release of the Bakkt exchange and the launch of bitcoin futures, but it must have already been woven into it. It is often thought of as a “buy” because it is a positive material, but you have to think about the risk of incorporating it already. In this sense, I personally started to look at the market a little bit. Based on this, we will analyze it today.
RCI7 and 9 have begun to move downwards, and the mid-term indicator RCI26 has also started to move downwards. RCI26 and 52 are easy to run in that direction from the timing of crossing ±80 line, this case is the timing that RCI26 is below +80.
So, it’s not the timing that seems to gain momentum from here on to the downward trend. Currently, RCI26 is lit at the bottom left of the chart with 87, and it is likely to fall to the number to interrupt 80 tomorrow, the day after tomorrow.
There is also a day of change that is often noticed in the foreign exchange market, and it is Friday the 30th. Because the flow of the market tends to change at this time, it is a range market now, but I will add that there is a possibility that a big extension in that direction when the trend occurs starting from the 30th. We continued to look at buying, including technical and time-oriented ones, but the other day we started to be aware of the downward direction.
This is bitcoin’s long-short checker, which I’ve covered several times in this column. As usual, bitfinex’s founding is the highest buying ratio and more than 76.2%.
However, short positions have been on the rise recently, and this balance is gradually changing. Since the ratio of the buying position remains large, there will be a lot of buying positions of 100-1.5 million yen recently.
In other words, the fact that investors have already bought and short positions have begun to pile up is a sign that new selling pressure is increasing.
As a result, the possibility of a decline is gradually increasing by the time the new purchase loses to the new selling pressure, and a big stop loss is involved when the yen is cracked. Personally, I wanted to aim for a short-term sale in the run-up to this price move. When many of the buying positions are lost, the market stops. I’m planning to buy again at that time, but I think it’s time to be wary of the last day’s price movements and technical analysis.
If you cut in one million yen, 920,000 yen will be the target. In addition, it becomes around 800,000 yen when interrupting.
This is a Fibonacci figure calculated from the rising ratio at the weekly level. There is a beautiful point that the level of the half-price return of this ratio which connected the most recent high from the low last year is able to be reduced to about 920,000 yen and 800,000 yen.
So, I think it’s good to aim for the price around here to buy back. I want to hope from a bear’s point of view a little in the most recent price movement. That was this week’s bitcoin analysis.