Even with the risk-on mood such as Bitcoin, the momentum of the upward trend is receding | Contribution by bitbank analyst

This week, the virtual currency market from 1/28 (Sat) to 2/3 (Fri)

Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at the major domestic exchange bitbank, illustrates this week’s bitcoin chart and analyzes the future outlook.

table of contents
  1. Bitcoin on-chain data
  2. Contributed by bitbank

Bitcoin on-chain data

Number of BTC transactions

Number of BTC transactions (monthly)

Number of active addresses

Number of active addresses (monthly)

BTC mining pool remittance destination

Exchange/Other Services

bitbank analyst analysis (contribution: Yuya Hasegawa)

Weekly report from 1/28 (Sat) to 2/3 (Fri):

This week’s bitcoin (BTC) vs. yen exchange rate continues to struggle around 3 million yen, continuing from the previous week.

BTC, which played a higher step on the weekend, stalled when it touched $24,000, and with the sale of altcoins from the beginning of the week, it turned to depreciate from 3.1 million yen, according to the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A sense of caution spread in front of and pushed it to around 3 million yen. Furthermore, on this day, the BTC market slightly fell below 3 million yen due to the softening of the stock price toward the closing of the US stock market and the accelerated selling of Alto.

On the other hand, BTC stopped falling at 3 million yen toward the middle of the week, and after the FOMC, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that “disinflation has begun,” and the market followed the upside. , and touched 3.11 million yen.

However, the market on the following day of the FOMC did not continue to rise, and after a lull in the rise, profit-taking took place as if to digest the event. In US time, there was a scene that was supported by the rise of IT stocks, but Apple (AAPL)’s financial results after the close weighed on the top.

[Fig. 1: BTC vs Yen chart (1 hour)]Source: Created from bitbank.cc

I was worried that the FOMC would turn the market around, but Chairman Powell’s remark that “disinflation has begun” seems to have stirred up the risk-on mood.

Powell said, “We need more evidence to be confident that inflation is back at its 2% target,” and mentioned “the next few rate hikes.” Speculation about a halt to rate hikes in March did not recede.

“Don’t fight the Fed” is the prevailing theory in the market, but it seems that the market only listens to convenient information.

Whether the market’s optimistic view of the FRB is justified depends on the future economic indicators, and attention will be paid to the employment statistics on the 3rd and the consumer price index (CPI) on the 14th of the week after next.

The BTC-USD RSI divergence we noted last week continues, suggesting a loss of uptrend momentum. In fact, the market rose after the FOMC, but failed to break free from the consolidation at the closing price, and if the results of the employment statistics on the 3rd come out strong, the market may enter a correction phase next week.

Even if the employment data provide support for the market, we cannot be relieved unless the stock recovers from the recent high of $24,200 at the closing price.

Contributor: Yuya HasegawaYuya Hasegawa

After graduating from a graduate school in the UK, he worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and the virtual currency market at a venture company consisting of people from financial institutions. Market analyst at Bitbank Co., Ltd. since 2019. He has a track record of providing comments to major domestic financial media and contributing to overseas media.

connection:bitbank_markets official website

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