Continuing from the previous article (https://www.coindeskjapan.com/110936/), this article summarizes the outlook for the exchange rates of the following six financial institutions and think tanks.
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
- Rakuten Securities
- AI Gold Securities
- Shinkin Central Bank Regional and SME Research Institute
- Meiji Yasuda Asset Management
- Money square
(* In order of announcement)
Please note that the forecasts by each company are written at different times (published from May 31st to June 4th, 2021) and do not guarantee future price movements.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ expects dollar yen 105-110 yen at the end of the year
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ forecasted the exchange rates for each quarter from June to March 2022 as follows in “FX Monthly (June 2021 issue)” on May 31st.
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ June and quarterly exchange outlook
|Australian dollar yen||82-87||81─87.5||81-88||80.5-88.5|
The “US dollar / yen” is expected to decline. The US dollar is expected to continue to weaken and the yen to appreciate due to the US trade deficit (and current account deficit) and interest rates that are unlikely to rise. In addition, the following are cited as factors that increase the momentum of the weak dollar and the strong yen.
- A sense of improvement in US business sentiment
- Intensifying offense and defense of the ruling and opposition parties in the US Congress, including the statutory debt cap issue
- Rise of uncertainty in the US Central Bank (FRB) financial normalization schedule
- Anomaly where the yen strengthens in the summer
Rakuten Securities Arachi predicts June dollar-yen range to be 107.54-111.29 yen
Rakuten Securities FX Dealing Department “Jun Arachi” predicted the “US dollar / yen” rate for June to be 107.54-111.29 yen on June 2.
Mr. Arachi looks at the resistance (upper resistance line) and support (lower support line) of the “US dollar / yen” as follows. The June forecast range seems to be from the 3rd support to the 3rd resistance.
Mr. Wasteland Dollar Yen Resistance & Support
4th resistance: 112.00 yen
Third resistance: 111.29 yen
2nd resistance: 110.57 yen
1st resistance: 110.35 yen
Pivot (standard): 109.41 yen
1st support: 108.48 yen
Second support: 108.25 yen
Third support: 107.54 yen
4th support: 106.82 yen
If it exceeds 109.41 yen, the dollar buying advantage is given, and if it falls below 109.41 yen, the dollar selling advantage is given.
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AI Gold Securities Expects June Dollar Yen to be 108.5-111.0 Yen
On June 2, AI Gold Securities predicted the June exchange rate as follows in its “Monthly Report (June 2021)”.
AI Gold Securities June Exchange Market Forecast
|Expected range for June|
|British pound yen||153─160|
|Australian dollar yen||83.5-87.5|
Regarding “US dollar / yen”, although the rate has been gradually rounded up recently, it is pointed out that the upside is heavy around 110 yen. Supporting the upper limit of clouds on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (108.667 yen as of June 1st), the main scenario was the traffic market with the high price of around 110.98 yen on March 31st.
In addition, if the cloud breaks below the upper limit of the cloud in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which is the support, the risk scenario is to try the lower limit of the cloud (107.052 yen as of June 1).
Shinkin Central Bank expects dollar yen from January to March 2010 to be 108-118 yen
On June 3, the Shinkin Central Bank Regional and Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Research Institute published the following exchange rates for each quarter up to June and March 2022 in the “Internal and Foreign Interest Rate and Exchange Outlook (No.2021-3)”. I expected.
Shinkin Central Bank June and quarterly exchange outlook
The exchange rate is expected to change in the box area. It is assumed that the central banks of Japan and the United States will maintain the easing measures for the time being and that the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States will not change significantly.
Shinkin Central Bank also presented pessimistic expectations as a sub-scenario (25% probability). In this scenario, the US Central Bank (FRB) has taken steps to further strengthen its easing measures due to the re-expansion of the new coronavirus, and the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan are forced to dig deeper into negative interest rates. The exchange rate outlook in that case is as follows.
Shinkin Central Bank June and quarterly exchange outlook (sub-scenario)
Meiji Yasuda AM expects dollar-yen pair to rise for the time being
Meiji Yasuda Asset Management predicted that the US dollar will rise moderately against the yen for the time being in the “Investment Environment Outlook (June 2021)” on June 3. He pointed out that expectations for a recovery in the US economy are likely to rise and that long-term US interest rates are likely to be under upward pressure.
The euro is also expected to show a gradual upward trend against the yen for the time being, as it is conscious of the normalization of economic activity due to the progress of vaccination in Europe.
Money Square Miyata suggests bottoming out of dollar index
Money Square Chief Technical Analyst “Naohiko Miyata” pointed out the possibility of the dollar index bottoming out from “Elliott Wave (one of the technical analyzes)” on June 4.
The dollar index has fallen from the March 31 high of 93.437, and although it is expected to fall below the January low (89.209), it is pointed out that it will be the final phase of the dollar depreciation trend. However, the dollar index has already rebounded recently, and it is possible that a sustained dollar appreciation trend has begun.
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