Is there room for bitcoin to rise in the manifestation of “three-role turnaround” | bitbank analyst contribution

Virtual currency market this week (3/18 (Sat) – 3/24 (Fri))

Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at the major domestic exchange bitbank, illustrates this week’s bitcoin chart and analyzes the future outlook.

table of contents
  1. Bitcoin on-chain data
  2. Contributed by bitbank

Bitcoin on-chain data

Number of BTC transactions

Number of BTC transactions (monthly)

Number of active addresses

Number of active addresses (monthly)

BTC mining pool remittance destination

Exchange/Other Services

bitbank analyst analysis (contribution: Yuya Hasegawa)

Weekly report from 3/18 (Sat) to 3/24 (Fri):

This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) vs. Yen exchange rate is generally flat. The dollar-denominated exchange rate continues to battle over the milestone of $28,000.

This week, the BTC market continued to move slightly while trying to hit highs until the middle of the week, but with the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) just around the corner, the gold (XAU) market rose to 3.8 million yen for the first time in 9 months. I got on.

On the other hand, at the FOMC, which reached its final day on the 22nd, the outlook for the policy interest rate at the end of the year remained unchanged from that in December, and the possibility of an interest rate cut within the year was ruled out. In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s testimony to Congress on the same day denied raising the upper limit of deposit guarantees, adding to the risk-off mood.

There have also been new developments from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has filed a lawsuit against Justin Song of Tron (XTR), and Coinbase said it has received a Wells Notice informing it of its planned lawsuit.

As a result, the market price temporarily accelerated its decline, but when it rebounded due to bargain buying around 3.5 million yen, it recovered to 3.6 million yen led by altcoin. Furthermore, as the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) seems certain to stop raising interest rates from May onwards, US Treasury yields are under downward pressure and BTC has almost regained the margin of decline.

After that, the top price was suppressed at 3.8 million yen, but Treasury Secretary Yellen softened the previous day’s stance, saying, “We are ready to take additional measures to protect deposits if necessary,” and BTC stopped falling around 3.7 million yen. ing.

[Fig. 1: BTC vs Yen chart (1 hour)]Source: Created from

As we feared last week, the FOMC has ruled out starting rate cuts this year. On the other hand, the FOMC statement has deleted the phrase “interest rate hike in progress”, and the contents are conscious of preparations to stop the rate hike, and it is putting downward pressure on the US Treasury yield.

While the SEC has strengthened its crackdown on the industry and confirmed bad news this week, BTC, the only product certified by Chairman Gensler, is expected to escape from altcoins. In addition, fears of a global financial crisis triggered by the bankruptcy of the US may have passed, and if risk appetite in the US stock market picks up, the BTC price will be supported.

From a technical point of view, BTC vs. the dollar was confirmed to be slightly overheated, but recently the relative strength index (RSI) has also broken below 70. This week, the strongest buy signal in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo has appeared, and the Bollinger Bands have seen a “rising band walk,” which indicates the continuation of the rising market. It is pointed out that there is

The dollar-denominated BTC price is facing resistance around the 2021 low of $28,800, but if it succeeds in breaking out of this level, it will be able to reach the $30,000 level.

Contributor: Yuya HasegawaYuya Hasegawa

After graduating from a graduate school in the UK, he worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and the virtual currency market at a venture company consisting of people from financial institutions. Market analyst at Bitbank Co., Ltd. since 2019. He has a track record of providing comments to major domestic financial media and contributing to overseas media.

connection:bitbank_markets official website

Last report:US Bank Bailout Helps Bitcoin Rise, Uncertainty About High Inflation