Correlation between Bitcoin and Gold
Analysts at JP Morgan, a major financial institution, suggested the cryptocurrency Bitcoin could reach 6.3 million yen ($45,000) in the latest price forecast in a memo to clients.
Due to the rarity of Bitcoin, which has an upper limit of 21 million BTC, many investors incorporate it into their asset portfolio as an alternative investment as part of risk hedging. It is sometimes called “digital gold” after the asset value of gold. Recently, a correlation with gold prices has been pointed out.
A JP Morgan analyst said:
With the gold price hovering above $2,000, the value of gold held outside of central bank investment purposes is currently valued at about $3 trillion.Bitcoin as risk capital or[数量]Assuming an adjusted size parity with gold, that would mean Bitcoin price would be $45,000.
bitcoin halving
Another reason JP Morgan favors Bitcoin price increases is the Bitcoin halving, which is predicted to occur around the end of April 2024.
Halving (bitcoin halving) refers to the timing when Bitcoin mining rewards are reduced by half. Bitcoin stipulates that every time the number of blocks reaches 210,000 (approximately every four years), the amount of newly issued BTC given as a reward to miners is halved.
JP Morgan expects Bitcoin mining costs (break-even point) to double from the current level to about $40,000 by next year’s halving. The cost of miners “has historically served as a valid support line,” so it is likely that the price of Bitcoin will rise after the halving.
Also, based on historical data, the Bitcoin price turned to a bull market around the 2016 and 2020 halvings, and we expect a similar phenomenon to occur next time.
JP Morgan also mentions Ethereum. He said the stocks could face short-term selling pressure until the middle of the year.
connection:Countdown to the next Bitcoin half-life less than a year away, market trends and expert predictions?
Arthur Hayes is bullish
Former CEO of leading derivatives exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes is bullish on Bitcoin beyond 2024.
In a podcast, Hayes emphasized the importance of the 2024 Bitcoin halving. In the same year, he showed a bullish forecast that Bitcoin will exceed the $ 70,000 (9.8 million yen) barrier and set a record high price between 2025 and 2026.
Meanwhile, the US banking crisis and the US federal government’s “trillion-dollar debt issuance” caused a “powder keg explosion” in the third and fourth quarters of this year, with bitcoin’s price volatility dropping. He argued that it would be intense, but could ultimately favor Bitcoin.
Hayes also said that he is paying attention to the movement of “Bitcoin Ordinals,” which is a Bitcoin version of NFT.
Youtube show “Digital Asset News” with 330,000 subscribers mentions the expansion of the NFT market on the Bitcoin blockchain. He cited the fact that it overtook Solana to become the second largest NFT blockchain as a reason to be bullish on the future Bitcoin price.
connection:Memecoin trading overheating, bitcoin token standard “BRC-20” market expands rapidly
