Kraken predicts that Bitcoin will sink in September and return to its aggressive volatility status later
THE crypto exchange US company speculated that Bitcoin price will fall this month, based on its August 2020 volatility report. According to the exchange, Bitcoin will break down in September and will show negative returns.
The Kraken report notes that September was the worst-performing month for Bitcoin in history, with an average return of -7% on the currency. He also adds that while Bitcoin’s returns in most months of this year have been less than its average returns, they are likely to show worse returns this month.
Beyond this bearish horizon, the report predicts some hope for the currency’s performance. For example, BTC’s record participation has not changed in more than a year. The crypto exchange says that this dynamic trend points to a bull market.
After that, Kraken portrays aggressive Bitcoin fluctuations: “12 times in the past, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility dropped between 15% and 30% before rising, on average, to 140% and returning + 196% in 94 days. At the end of August, 38 days have passed since the 23% volatility low set on July 24, with volatility rising to 44% and the price gaining + 25%”.
This indicates that there is still room for gains in the coming months based on similar historical events. According to the report, September tends to have the weakest average volatility, suggesting that the currency is unlikely to experience accelerated volatility until the fourth quarter of the year.
Still, it is important to keep in mind that this forecast is not necessarily what the future will look like. Bitcoin’s recent moves give the impression that cryptocurrency is moving away from the market’s catalytic pattern.
One case in point is when the currency recorded a high correlation with the S&P stock market index for most of last month. After reaching a local top of 0.84, the correlation dropped to -0.02.