Analyzing BTC spot ETF
British financial giant Standard Chartered Bank announced on the 8th that if a physical exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the crypto asset (virtual currency) Bitcoin (BTC) is approved in the United States, it will generate between $50 billion and $100 billion (approximately) in 2024. He predicted that there would be an inflow of funds ranging from 7.2 trillion yen to approximately 14.4 trillion yen. This was reported by overseas media that obtained the company’s report.
Many believe that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the first Bitcoin spot ETF in the US this week. Standard Chartered also predicts that if ETF inflows go as expected, the price of Bitcoin could rise to the $200,000 level by the end of 2025. There is.
The company based its analysis on trends in gold exchange-traded financial products (ETPs), such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a gold ETF first launched in 2004. Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply, and VanEck, a major U.S. asset management company, announced a similar forecast last month.
What is ETP?
It is an abbreviation for “Exchange Traded Products” and is a general term for ETFs, ETNs (exchange traded securities), etc.
▶️Virtual currency glossary
connection: VanEck predicts the amount of capital inflow upon approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, taking into account gold ETF cases and economic environment
Standard Chartered also uses Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a reference to predict the amount of capital inflow. After assuming multiple patterns, the company concluded that this year’s inflow amount would be “appropriately between $50 billion and $100 billion.”
connection: Significant progress in Bitcoin ETF application, SEC commissioners to vote next week, possible $2 billion inflow
Regarding Bitcoin prices, he predicts that the ETF market will develop faster than gold. The period is one or two years, and if the inflow into the ETF goes as the company predicts, the price of Bitcoin will be $100,000 (approximately 14.4 million yen) by the end of 2024, and 200,000 by the end of 2025. He says it is possible for prices to rise to the $1,000 level.
Learn about Bitcoin ETFs from the beginning: Explaining the advantages and disadvantages of investing and how to buy US stocks
About Ethereum ETF
Standard Chartered also expressed the view that the Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF that multiple companies have applied for in the United States could be approved in the second quarter of 2024 (April to June).
Although SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has stated in the past that virtual currencies other than Bitcoin may fall under the category of securities, the SEC has said that multiple virtual currency exchanges have When filing a lawsuit for violation of the law, it was pointed out that Ethereum was not cited as an example of a security.
On top of that, he argued that it is likely that Ethereum spot ETFs will eventually be approved as well. The SEC has already approved Ethereum futures ETFs, as well as Bitcoin.
connection: Counting down to Bitcoin ETF approval, beware of downside risk in the near term | Contributed by bitbank analyst