In this article, the Bitcoin market is analyzed in 5 stages (5 → 1: Strong → Weak) using six representative technical analyzes: pattern analysis, moving average (9MA, 25MA), Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and RSI. Evaluate the strength of the market with the average.
I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in technical analysis. The aim is to eliminate arbitrariness and improve accuracy by combining multiple representative analysis methods.
*This article is a reprint of the technical report of “Rakuten Wallet”.
The overall score is 2.5. Support at the lower end of the range is mixed, with Bollinger suggesting a pullback and MACD suggesting a breakout. If the range breaks, the next support will be around 3.4 million yen, where the halving of the March-April rally overlaps with the lower bound of the Ichimoku cloud.
It seems that the price bounced back from the previous high and formed a double top, but should we consider it to be a parallel channel? The pair is trying to hit the lower end of the range at around 3.5 million yen, and it is unclear whether the pair will rebound from support here or break below. If it cracks, the next support will be around 3.4 million yen, which will be half price.
After the golden cross ends in failure and forms a dead cross, both lines go downward. The lowering of that amount is over, or a slightly subtle shape.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
The buying sign of the three-role turnaround disappeared, the candlestick entered the cloud, and the sense of direction was lost. It is still in the cloud and it cannot be said that it has entered a bearish trend, but it is possible that the price will fall to around 3.4 million yen, which is the lower limit of the cloud.
While the band is flat and lacking a sense of direction, it has reached the lower end of the band and is likely to be supported.
Dead cross, both lines began to turn downward.
No signs of oversold near 40 yet.
Rakuten Wallet Senior Analyst
Majored in the international monetary system at the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. He is engaged in foreign exchange and bond sales and trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank and Deutsche Bank Group. Since 2018, she has been engaged in analyzing and forecasting the crypto-asset market at a crypto-asset exchange company, and is forecasting a peak of 8 million yen in 2021 and 5 million yen at the end of the year, which is almost right. Current position from January 2022.
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| Editing: coindesk JAPAN
｜Image: Rakuten Wallet
｜Reprinted from: Rakuten Wallet