As we approach the end of 2019, we are thinking crypto-currency-oriented bitcoin-driven
After more than a decade, Bitcoin now has a reasonably robust price behavior model. It doesn’t always work the same way. Beyond all doubts, he is still too young to show which periods are anomalies and what’s embedded in price models.
However, there may be several extra reasons for optimism as the New Year approaches, as foundations such as fiat currency, negative interest rates and trade tension put upward pressure on BTC prices.
From the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2019, there are five quarters in which Bitcoin has triple-digit growth against the U.S. dollar. Two took place in 2013. Two of them happened in the fourth quarter.
During the same period, bitcoin experienced a negative price movement in eight quarters. Three of them occurred in the third quarter, so far in the third quarter of this year, this rate fell by seven percent. The average performance for the third quarter since 2012 is negative. The average figure for the fourth quarter is over 50 percent.
Are there any anomalies?
Bitcoin historians may indicate that cryptocurrency Bitcoin has abnormal periods in price transactions at 4.4 and 4.208. The end of 2017 was likewise a period of irrational exuberance for Bitcoin and altcoins: the 4th time of that year. in the quarter, bitcoin rose more than 220 percent against the U.S. dollar.
A year later, Bitcoin fell by almost 45 percent between October and December. Crypto advocates may point to the end of 2018 as a sign that a year-long winter is over for the crypto economy, which is replacing the parabolic 2017 bubble.
But maybe what were the anomalies in 2017 and 2018? If 2017 was a year of irrational euphoria, 2018 was a year of irrational fear. As a thought exercise, recalculating averages can be instructive, excluding years.
The fourth quarter in 2017 was the third strongest price increase for cryptocurrency Bitcoin. The second worst quarter in 2018.
In short, the fourth quarter tends to be historically positive for Bitcoin. When the third quarter of the year ends, there may be another reason for optimism as this recession is on the horizon.